UK
The Textile Services Association (TSA) annual National Congress in Edinburgh, 9 February, saw Sir John Curtice presented a paper on the vexed question of Brexit and its repercussions three years on. He is Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University in Glasgow, and Senior Research Fellow, NatCen Social Research and the ESRC’s ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’ initiative. He has written extensively about voting behaviour in the UK, and British political and social attitudes. He is also a familiar figure from countless appearances on BBC elections specials as the resident statistician.
Introducing Curtice to the delegates, TSA CEO David Stevens said: “I feel I have had some very late nights with our next speaker. In fact I have gone to bed and found him still there in the morning when I woke up. Apparently, its been going on for 44 years. Of course, I am talking about election nights on the BBC. I thought we would ask him to talk about polling and stats but he was quite assertive and said you don’t want all that, why don’t I talk about Brexit and how it is going to affect your industry? I said yes sound good.”
Curtice took to the podium, explaining that in 2016 the vote to leave the EU was won by a very small majority – 52-48% but now, according to Sir John, 57-58% wish to rejoin. He concluded from his analysis of polls and statistics since August of 2016 to date that:
• Public opinion has swung somewhat away from Brexit, and especially over the past year which is in part a consequence of a (widened) age divide (more people over 65 voted to leave than 18-24-year-olds. Young people that were not eligible to vote in 2016 now can and those elderly leavers are passing away).
• Over the past year, (some) 2016 leave voters, in particular, have changed their minds not least because of doubts about Brexit’s economic impact. Meanwhile, Brexit is widely thought not to have delivered the fall in immigration many leave voters anticipated. Sir John believes immigration has topped being an issue about Brexit.
• Right now, a softening of Brexit looks relatively popular, but would not be enough for some remainers and could be too much for some leavers. There is some recognition of post-Brexit labour market difficulties.
• Both issues are ones where attitudes depend on framing/the quid pro quo.
“So far, only modest proposals for softening from the political parties who still tend to draw their support from different Brexit wells,” he commented. He added that now the economy has tanked, it is very hard for the Government to convince the public it is delivering on Brexit. It’s a different zeitgeist to 2016. In the past six months we are now having the argument for softening Brexit because public opinion has moved on.
"The decision to leave was sharply divided by age – 18-24-year-olds were mainly in favour of remain while the over 65s were for leaving. That average profile now means a move to pro-EU. Around one third of the movement can be attributable to the demographic change as younger leave voters change their minds and a number of the original older leave voters are sadly no longer with us."
Interestingly, according to Curtice: "Both groups agree Brexit is not delivering on immigration and that it is now higher, a rare point of agreement. That issue is not now anchoring leave voters and it is now economic concerns that are pushing people away from leave. In the NHS nobody objects to foreign nurses or doctors or social care workers…but no more bankers wanted. [The perception is] They have done enough damage already, thank you very much.
"So, what sort of softening might we see? Possibly participation in and access to EU research progammes; access to single market – not joining but having closer links."
Curtice said when asked in a recent survey whether Brexit is causing labour market shortages 25% say no and others said it is only part of the story. “However, the cries of the hospitality [and textile care] industry have not yet been recognised by the Government although construction has had some success pursuing its case.”
Summing up, he said that the Conservative Party is still in favour of Brexit and won’t change its mind. Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both decided not to continue the argument about about Brexit. However, the SNP is and was against leaving and is still calling for independence. “Over the next two years, your guess is as good as mine,” concluded Curtice.
